WHY ALL ‘NEVER LOSE’ CRAPS ‘SYSTEMS’ ARE NONSENSE

It’s strange that there are so many people convinced that there’s some secret way to produce longterm profits at a casino game with a negative expected value. We’re not talking about players winning money or ‘getting lucky’ in the short term. That’s the entire allure of gambling. We’re talking the many ‘systems’ that claim you can make $1000 per night with no downside risk playing craps or that you can walk into the casino with $60 and walk out with $600 every day *guaranteed*. It doesn’t matter what the strategy is–money management, bet structuring or whatever–there’s no system that can beat a game with a longterm negative expected value. Forget about doing it without ‘downside risk’ of loss.

This reality should be obvious to everyone who understands the concept of a ‘house edge’. Maybe I’m giving the gambling public too much credit with many of them so oblivious to the math at play. It should be as ridiculous as a ‘system’ to teach your cat physics but just do a Google search–there’s an abundance of ‘never lose systems’ and other gambling related scams for sale. You can even find ‘systems’ to win the lottery and beat slot machines. For some strange reason, however, there’s an inordinate amount of craps systems.

THE MATH OF CRAPS

The only way to make money gambling in the long term is to find a positive EV bet and repeat it. You can also play poker, where the casino acts as the ‘intermediary’ as you play against other individuals. What *isn’t* possible is to make money in the long term at a negative EV game or, in other words, a game with a ‘house advantage’. Craps *does* offer the ‘odds bet’ which is a true even money bet. +100. The problem is that you’ll just break even in the longterm if you just play that bet. Assuming you *could* just play that bet since it requires a player to set a point which requires a pass line bet.

With the exception of the odds bet the house edge in craps ranges from a low of 1.36% (No Pass Line bets)to a high of 16.9% (the ‘Any 7’ bet). In other words, there isn’t a positive EV bet or combination of bets on the board. You don’t have to be a mathematical genius to understand that no matter how you combine negative EV bets that they’ll never become positive EV. You can’t structure bets in such a way to change the fundamental math that circumscribes the game, let alone to do so in such a way that completely eliminates any downside risk. If you’re playing a negative EV game it doesn’t matter how you structure your bets, or which ‘system’ you use or if you use one at all. In the long term, you’ll be in roughly the same place financially.

EVEN IF YOU WIN IN THE SHORT TERM…

Even if you win in the short term that doesn’t invalidate the long term negative expectation of craps. And do yourself a favor–if any gambling system suggests ‘tracking outcomes’ and then betting on one that is ‘due’ just ignore anything else they say. That’s called the ‘Gambler’s Fallacy’ and anyone advocating this type of system not only lacks any understanding of gambling but any understanding of math.

So get this fact through your head. No matter what any scam artist says there’s no long term system that can beat a negative EV game whether it’s craps, keno, roulette, slots or the lottery. Learn the math and you’ll know enough to not even give this type of bottom feeder any of your time or attention.